So this is a new thing we are trying. Looking at cryptocurrency data and see if we can extract some insights out of it. Beware yea mortal...this is not a market analysis or investment advice, we don't pretend to know how to do that. We do have a lot of knowledge on analysing data. We utilize perosnal experience to write down some interesting insights about Bitcoin data.
As of this writing we are in the middle of the mega crash of 2018 and it got me wondering how special is this crash. To coinmarketcap I went and got the historical data per day since 2013 (link). After that I split this data out per calendar year and day in the year. (for example 17 January is the 17th day of the year) Lastly I sorted this on lowest opening value to highest opening value.
Looking at the result for 2016 we find that the 16th day of the year was the lowest opening of Bitcoin that year.
I did this for all the years except 2013 because this was not a full year and got the following insights:
- The worst days of 2013 were mostly in December.
- The worst days of 2014, 2015, 2016 where all in the third week of January.
These are interesting insights, the last 3 years the same period can be pointed to as the lowest value of bitcoin that year.
To be sure I also check the percentage drop for those days. These numbers show the same consistency for the previous 3 years.
What we can conclude, looking at 2018, is that this crash is within the historical expectation.
The reasons for why it happened around this time frame i cannot answer. Other people have done further analysis on this and the internet is full with wild guesses and conclusions, I will not add mine to those.But I do like to pose questions: "Does knowing that this week is a bad week to trade or own bitcoins create a self fulfilling prophecy and influence the price?"
Do with this information what you want but I will sleep a little better.
note: a previous version of this article incorrectly stated it was the second week of January. it has been corrected to the third week of January.